Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NY Mets -110 over Texas

Citi Field – Flushing, NY

7:10 PM ET. The Mets are in the middle of one of the ugliest collapses in franchise history. They’re clinging to playoff hopes, they’ve been burning backers for weeks, and now they send a rookie to the mound against Jacob deGrom returning to Citi Field. Everything screams Texas. Which is exactly why the Mets are the side.

DeGrom’s surface stats are elite (11-7, 2.78 ERA), but variance has carried him. His .234 BABIP and 85% strand rate are unsustainable, and it’s only a matter of time before it catches up. If Texas was the right side, they’d be priced as a clear favorite. They’re not. They’re even money against a rookie arm and a team freefalling in the standings. That’s the red flag.

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