Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Francisco +110 over NY Mets

9:45 PM EST. David Peterson comes in with a spotless 0.00 ERA, but that’s the kind of early-season number that can be misleading if you don’t dig deeper. His underlying metrics—xERA and xFIP—typically trend much higher, largely due to command inconsistencies and a tendency to allow traffic on the bases. He’s not a dominant swing-and-miss arm, which means he relies heavily on sequencing and defense. On the other side, Robbie Ray’s 3.60 ERA is far more grounded in reality, and his advanced metrics often back it up. His strikeout rate remains elite, and his xFIP usually suggests he’s capable of outperforming that surface ERA when he’s locating.

From a matchup perspective, this leans toward San Francisco more than the odds imply. Ray’s ability to miss bats gives him a clear edge in terms of controlling innings—something that becomes even more valuable against a Mets lineup that can be patient but isn’t immune to strikeouts. Meanwhile, Peterson’s profile leaves little margin for error. If his command wavers even slightly, his xERA indicators suggest trouble follows quickly, especially against a lineup that can grind out at-bats and capitalize on mistakes. This is a classic case of a pitcher who looks better on paper than he actually is versus one whose underlying metrics point to stability.

You’re getting plus money on the home team with the more reliable pitching profile, and in baseball, that’s often the edge that will decide the game. Public perception may lean toward the Mets , but the advanced numbers tell a different story—Ray has the tools to dictate this game, while Peterson is walking a tightrope. In a sport driven by predictive analytics, that gap matters. Take San Francisco on the moneyline and trust the numbers to back up the price. I can’t resist a dog at home!

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