Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +135 over Pittsburgh

12:35 PM EST. Foster Griffin (LHP, Washington Nationals) vs. Brandon Ashcraft (RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates) is a matchup that looks tight on the surface, but the underlying metrics give us a clear angle if you’re willing to trust the data over the number. Griffin’s 1.80 ERA jumps off the page, and while some regression is always expected with a number that low, his xERA and xFIP still support a pitcher who’s executing at a high level. He’s limiting hard contact, keeping hitters off balance with a lefty mix, and doing a strong job avoiding damage innings. Ashcraft, sitting at a 2.12 ERA, has also been effective, but his underlying profile is a bit more fragile—his xFIP trends higher due to a lower strikeout rate and a reliance on contact management.

That’s where the matchup starts to lean toward Washington as a live dog. Griffin’s ability to miss barrels and generate weak contact plays well on the road, especially against a lineup that can struggle when it doesn’t get extended rallies. His expected batting average (xBA) against is solid, and he’s shown the ability to pitch out of trouble without letting innings spiral. Ashcraft, meanwhile, has been efficient, but the advanced numbers hint at potential regression. His hard-hit rate and expected slugging (xSLG) suggest he’s been a bit fortunate, and if that contact starts finding gaps, things can turn quickly. He’s more pitch-to-contact, and that always carries risk in a game priced this tightly.

At +135, this is a pure value position on Washington. You’re getting a lefty in Griffin whose advanced metrics back up his early success, against a pitcher in Ashcraft who may be outperforming his peripherals. In what’s essentially a coin-flip type matchup, grabbing plus money with the side that has the more stable underlying profile is exactly the long-term winning approach. Washington doesn’t need to dominate—they just need Griffin to continue doing what the numbers say he can. At this price, that’s a bet worth making.

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