Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tampa Bay +100 over Boston

7:10 PM EST. This comes down to the arms, and Griffin Jax (RHP – TB) has the far stronger profile. The ERA damage last year came from poor luck more than poor pitching. The strikeouts remained elite, the command remained strong, and the swing-and-miss stuff never disappeared. Those are the types of pitchers that rebound quickly once the numbers normalize.

Jax misses bats at a high rate, throws strikes, and limits free passes. That plays anywhere, but especially against younger lineups that can get overly aggressive. His underlying metrics remain excellent, and there’s a reason projection systems still rate him highly despite the surface numbers from last season.

On the other side, Jake Bennett (LHP – BOS) is making just his second MLB start. The debut against Houston was solid, but five innings with limited damage doesn’t suddenly erase the uncertainty that comes with inexperienced pitchers. Now comes the adjustment phase, where teams have video, scouting reports, and a better feel for what he’s trying to do.

Tampa Bay is also a difficult team for inexperienced pitchers because they grind at-bats and force you to execute repeatedly. One mistake can turn into a long inning quickly, especially once pitch counts rise.

Boston is asking a young lefty with one career start to outduel a proven power arm with elite strikeout ability. That’s a tough assignment. 

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