Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

N.Y. Mets -1½ +140 over Arizona

7:15 PM EST. This is primarily a fade on Merrill Kelly (RHP – ARI).

Since returning from the IL, Kelly has been a disaster. The ERA is pushing 10, the WHIP is over 2.30, and the command and strikeout numbers have both fallen off sharply. Yes, there are some indicators suggesting he’s been unlucky, but there’s also too much hard contact and too many innings getting away from him quickly.

The strikeout rate is down significantly from career norms, and when veteran pitchers stop missing bats, things can unravel in a hurry. One decent swing-and-miss outing against the Cubs doesn’t suddenly erase four ugly starts. Arizona is hoping he’s turning the corner. Betting-wise, that’s not enough.

On the other side, Clay Holmes (RHP – NYM) has transitioned into the rotation better than expected. The ground-ball rate is elite, the WHIP is under 1.00, and he’s keeping the ball out of trouble spots. In a hitter-friendly park, that matters. Ground balls limit damage, and Holmes has been doing that consistently.

His expected ERA sits higher than the actual ERA, so some correction could come eventually, but the overall profile is still strong. He’s throwing strikes, limiting baserunners, and pitching deep enough into games to give the Mets stability.

Arizona also enters this game with the weaker bullpen form and the shakier starter. If Kelly runs into early trouble, this can get sideways fast.

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