Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Milwaukee +140 over Chicago

7:40 PM EST. No chance are we passing up Milwaukee at this price. The Brewers are 26-18 with a ridiculous +61 run differential, they’re 8-2 over their last 10 games, and this is a team capable of winning every single night regardless of opponent or venue. This number is inflated because the Cubs have piled up wins at Wrigley and because Shota Imanaga carries a strong reputation, but there’s more value here than the odds suggest.

Brandon Sproat (RHP - MIL) is still very much a developing arm, but these are exactly the types of pitchers worth speculating on before the market fully catches up. His surface numbers don’t jump off the page after going 0-2 with a 4.79 ERA in 20 innings at Triple-A, but prospect development is rarely linear. Sproat was one of the bigger breakout arms in 2024 and still possesses the type of raw stuff that gives him legitimate upside. He generates an extreme ground-ball profile, which is a huge weapon at Wrigley, and when young pitchers with this type of arsenal begin to settle in, value appears quickly before oddsmakers fully adjust.

Shota Imanaga (LHP - CHC) is excellent and deserves respect. He limits baserunners, competes deep into games, and generally keeps the Cubs in strong position to win. But this isn’t really about fading Imanaga. It’s about backing a Milwaukee team that continues to produce offensively, continues to win games, and continues to be undervalued because the betting market still gives Chicago a little too much credit based on name value and home record.

Milwaukee’s offense has become one of the more dangerous attacks in baseball. They pressure defenses, create traffic constantly, and their ability to manufacture runs gives them a chance against any style of pitcher. Add in one of the best run differentials in the league and recent form that’s been outstanding, and this price becomes too attractive to ignore. The Crew simply need to continue doing what they’ve been doing for weeks now — compete hard every night and find ways to win games. At this number, that’s enough value for us.

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