Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Colorado -1½ +205 over Texas

Kyle Freeland (LHP - Colorado) vs. Jack Leiter (RHP - Texas)

3:10 PM EST. Kyle Freeland’s overall ERA sits at an ugly 7.36, but this spot sets up better for the veteran left-hander than the raw numbers suggest. Freeland has traditionally pitched more effectively at home when he is generating ground balls early in counts, and Texas has shown stretches of inconsistency against left-handed pitching away from Arlington. The Rangers remain heavily power-dependent offensively, and that approach can work against them in Coors when pitchers avoid free passes and force hitters to expand the zone. Freeland’s ability to keep the ball down and limit damage contact becomes critical here, especially against a Texas lineup that has been more volatile on the road this season.

Jack Leiter enters this matchup off two strong outings where he has allowed just one earned run over his last 11.2 innings while striking out 12 batters. The underlying metrics continue to show why Texas remains high on the young right-hander, as Leiter carries a strong 25% strikeout rate alongside a 12.9% swinging-strike rate and a respectable 3.79 xERA. However, the biggest concern remains his command. Leiter has walked eight batters across those last two starts and owns a 9% walk rate on the season, which becomes dangerous in Coors Field where free baserunners often turn into crooked innings quickly. Colorado has quietly hit right-handed pitching well over the past month, batting .265 with a .162 ISO, and this is a lineup capable of capitalizing if Leiter falls behind in counts.

Colorado also profiles well as a reverse run line play because of the offensive environment at Coors Field and the volatility that comes with it. Leiter’s strikeout upside is legitimate, but his command issues create opportunities for big innings, particularly against a Rockies offense that has been far more productive at home. If Colorado can force Leiter into elevated pitch counts early, Texas may once again lean heavily on a bullpen that has been inconsistent in middle relief situations. In a game where offense should come in waves, the value sits with Colorado at home to pull off this upset.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------