Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Washington -105 over NY Mets
Cade Cavalli (RHP - Washington) vs. David Peterson (LHP - New York Mets)
4:05 PM EST. Cade Cavalli continues to settle into the Washington rotation and has flashed the upside that made him one of the organization’s top pitching prospects. The right-hander enters with a respectable 4.11 ERA while showing the ability to generate swings and misses with his fastball-slider combination. Cavalli’s biggest advantage in this matchup is facing a Mets offense that has been inconsistent away from home and vulnerable against power right-handers capable of working ahead in counts. When Cavalli establishes first-pitch strikes early, his velocity plays up considerably, allowing him to attack hitters instead of pitching defensively with runners on base.
David Peterson enters this matchup in a dangerous spot against one of baseball’s hottest offenses versus left-handed pitching. The Mets left-hander struggled with command in his most recent outing, issuing three walks over four innings, and that becomes a major concern against a Washington lineup that has been elite against southpaws. The Nationals currently own the best OPS in Major League Baseball versus left-handed pitching at .798, and the numbers become even stronger recently. Since May 6, Washington has posted a scorching .864 OPS overall while producing an even more impressive .913 OPS at home during that stretch. Peterson’s tendency to allow traffic through walks and deeper counts could become a major issue against a contact-heavy lineup that is consistently putting balls in play.
Washington profiles as the stronger side in what is essentially a coin-flip matchup because of the offensive split advantage against left-handed pitching. The Nationals are swinging the bats extremely well right now, especially at home, and Peterson’s recent command issues create a difficult matchup against a lineup built around contact and pressure. Washington also carries momentum offensively, consistently producing quality at-bats throughout the order rather than relying on isolated power. If Cavalli can provide five to six competitive innings, the Nationals have a strong opportunity to capitalize on Peterson’s matchup disadvantage and secure the home win.
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Our Pick
Washington -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)