Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

NY Mets -1½ +160 over Miami

1:40 PM EST. Nolan McLean (RHP - NYM) over Janson Junk (RHP - MIA)

There may not be a more undervalued starter in the National League right now than Nolan McLean, and that has everything to do with what the market just saw. McLean was torched in each of his last two starts, first by Cincinnati and then in Washington, with an ugly surface ERA of 18.90 over those two outings. That looks terrible on paper, but underneath it sits a 3.19 expected ERA, which tells us the blowups were not nearly as bad as the scoreboard made them look.

McLean still owns the type of profile we want to buy after a couple of ugly box scores. His 14.5% swing-and-miss rate is elite, his arsenal is nasty, and his sinker gives him a real groundball foundation when he is not missing bats. This is still the same former two-way Oklahoma State arm nicknamed “Cowboy Ohtani,” and nothing about two bad starts changes the fact that the stuff plays.

The setup is also ideal for a rebound. Miami comes in with a weak .651 OPS and 84 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this month, and now they have to deal with a power arm that can miss bats and keep the ball on the ground. That is not a great combination for a Marlins lineup that does not consistently pressure good pitching.

On the other side, Janson Junk is exactly the type of starter we want to attack on the run line. Junk has survived by throwing strikes and avoiding total disaster, but there is very little swing-and-miss here. His strikeout rate is the third lowest on today’s board, he has just 43 Ks in 60 innings, and his expected ERA sits at 4.80. That is a thin margin for error against a Mets team with enough offensive talent to do damage if Junk is living in the zone.

Junk’s profile screams regression risk. Last year’s surface numbers looked respectable, but let’s nail down the warning signs: journeyman stuff, modest velocity, more hard contact as the season went on, and a dominant start/disaster start profile that suggested he was barely getting by. That is not the guy we want holding a ticket when the opposing starter has the better stuff, the better upside, and the better rebound spot.

The market is giving us a sweet plus-money run line because McLean’s last two starts were ugly. Fine by us. We are not buying the ERA from those two starts; we are buying the skills, the matchup, and the bounce-back spot at home against a weak Miami lineup.

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