Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota -1½ +140 over Chicago

1:40 PM EST. This play is less about backing Taj Bradley (RHP – MIN) and more about fading Erick Fedde (RHP – CHW). Bradley has been solid all season, posting a 3.21 ERA with a respectable 3.79 expected ERA. The strikeout ability remains intact, as evidenced by 13 punchouts over his first two starts after returning from the injured list. His swing-and-miss rate sits at an impressive 12.2%, and perhaps most encouraging is his ability to keep the ball in the yard, allowing just six home runs over 56 innings.

Fedde is another story entirely. The South Side's right-hander has become a pitcher we're looking to fade whenever the market allows. His expected ERA sits at 5.41 for the season and an alarming 7.22 over his last five starts. Those numbers suggest he's been fortunate to avoid even worse results. An 83% strand rate has masked a lot of damage, but that type of good fortune rarely lasts forever. His strikeout-to-walk profile is weak, the swing-and-miss numbers are poor, and the contact quality against him remains concerning.

Chicago has been more competitive offensively of late, but this remains a team with significant pitching deficiencies, and Fedde is a major part of that problem. Minnesota owns the edge on the mound, the edge in overall talent, and the edge in bullpen depth. With Bradley capable of missing bats and Fedde profiling as little more than batting practice at this point, we're willing to lay the run and a half and take the plus money. The pitching mismatch is simply too large to ignore.

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