Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Francisco +105 over Chicago

8:20 PM EST. Trevor McDonald (RHP – SF) continues to fly under the radar, but his underlying numbers suggest he's pitching far better than most people realize. The Giants right-hander has recorded a pure quality start or better in four of his six appearances and carries an impressive 2.93 expected ERA compared to a surface ERA of 4.50. His 31 strikeouts against just nine walks in 34 innings translates to a strong 15% K-BB rate, while his ability to generate ground balls helps him avoid the big inning. McDonald isn't a household name yet, but he's quietly giving San Francisco quality outings on a consistent basis.

The matchup is favorable as well. Chicago's offense has been respectable against right-handed pitching, but far from dominant. Since the beginning of May, the Cubs have posted a modest .711 OPS and a .227 batting average against righties. That's hardly the profile of an offense capable of taking advantage of a pitcher who throws strikes and keeps the ball on the ground. Chicago's lineup was red-hot earlier in the season, but that version of the Cubs has disappeared. The bats have cooled considerably, and they're no longer generating the same level of offensive pressure.

Jameson Taillon (RHP – CHC) remains one of the most overrated starters in baseball. There's nothing particularly wrong with him, but there's also nothing particularly impressive. His strikeout numbers are mediocre, his ground-ball rate is below average, and he's increasingly vulnerable when facing lineups that can string together quality at-bats. Over his last five starts, Taillon owns a 6.04 ERA, while his expected ERA during that same stretch sits at 5.11. Those aren't the numbers of a pitcher deserving favorite status against a team that's currently swinging the bats well.

Speaking of hot offenses, San Francisco enters this game in outstanding form. The Giants have produced a massive 142 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created) over the past two weeks and have consistently put pressure on opposing pitching staffs. They are seeing the ball well, making hard contact, and getting contributions throughout the lineup. When a surging offense meets a pitcher trending in the wrong direction, we'll gladly take the plus price. McDonald has been better than advertised, Taillon has been worse than perceived, and San Francisco offers the value.

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