Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit -1½ +125 over Minnesota

6:40 PM EST Framber Valdez (LHP – DET) has been difficult to trust from start to start, alternating strong outings with poor ones since the beginning of May. That said, the matchup sets up favorably here. While Valdez's ground-ball rate and strikeout-to-walk profile are both below his usual standards, he still possesses enough quality stuff to take advantage of a Minnesota lineup that has struggled badly against left-handed pitching. Over the past month, the Twins have hit just .209 against southpaws, making this a good opportunity for Valdez to build on his last strong outing.

Minnesota counters with Mike Paredes (RHP – MIN), a pitcher who looks more like a temporary rotation filler than a long-term solution. His numbers at every level leave plenty to be desired. In limited major league action this season, Paredes has posted an expected ERA approaching seven while recording as many walks as strikeouts. His minor league track record doesn't offer much encouragement either, and asking him to navigate a Detroit lineup that is beginning to heat up is a difficult assignment.

The Tigers have started to find their offense and are once again stacking wins after a sluggish stretch. With the better lineup, the more established starter, and a vulnerable opposing pitcher on the other side, Detroit is in a strong position to separate. At plus money, the run line offers the most value. We'll back the Tigers to win this one by two runs or more.

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