Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati +115 over New York

12:40 PM EST. Cincinnati finds itself in an attractive underdog role here, as the market appears to be giving too much weight to season-long numbers and not enough attention to recent form. Nick Lodolo (LHP - CIN) is beginning to look more comfortable after returning from the injured list and is coming off one of his better outings of the season, allowing just two runs over 5.1 innings against Arizona while striking out five. Since shaking off the rust from his first two starts back, Lodolo has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. While his overall numbers remain unimpressive—a 5.21 ERA, 6.07 FIP and 6.13 xERA through 38 innings—there are reasons to believe improvement is coming. Just as importantly, he draws a favorable matchup against a Mets lineup that has hit only .237 against left-handed pitching over the past month while striking out 26% of the time.

Nolan McLean (RHP - NYM) has produced respectable surface numbers with a 4.01 ERA across 76.1 innings, but there are reasons to question whether he's deserving of favorite status. The rookie right-hander owns a solid 10.38 K/9 and a respectable 3.69 FIP, but he has also stranded just 66.8% of runners and has shown occasional command lapses with a 3.66 BB/9. McLean has pitched well overall, yet this is still a relatively inexperienced starter facing a Cincinnati lineup that has enough speed and aggression to pressure young pitchers into mistakes. The Reds are unlikely to be overwhelmed by a pitcher they haven't seen before, especially one still learning how to navigate major-league lineups multiple times through the order.

Lets get out the broom for Cincinnati tonight. Lodolo's season numbers are inflated by a difficult return from injury, but his recent performances indicate he's moving in the right direction. The Mets have struggled against left-handed pitching recently, and that weakness aligns perfectly with Lodolo's strengths when he's commanding the strike zone. McLean may ultimately develop into a quality starter, but the gap between these two pitchers is much smaller than the betting market suggests. With an improving left-hander facing a lineup that has struggled against southpaws and an underdog price attached, Cincinnati is the side worth backing. Win or lose we'll take this bet every time!

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