Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Athletics +110 over San Francisco

Aaron Civale (RHP - ATH, 4.91 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP - SFG, 4.07 ERA)

9:45 PM EST. The Athletics have a realistic opportunity to pull the upset as a road underdog because this matchup may be more favorable than the starting-pitcher ERAs suggest. Aaron Civale enters with a 4.91 ERA across 58.2 innings, but his 5-3 record and 80.3% strand rate have helped keep the Athletics competitive in his starts. While Civale's underlying metrics are not elite (5.51 xERA, 5.38 FIP, 5.19 xFIP), he has maintained solid control with a 2.91 BB/9 and has shown the ability to navigate lineups multiple times. The key for Civale will be limiting the long ball after allowing 1.84 HR/9, but San Francisco's offense has been inconsistent enough that he may be able to keep the game within reach if he avoids major mistakes.

Robbie Ray's overall numbers don't necessarily justify a heavy favorite role. The Giants' left-hander owns a 4.07 ERA through 79.2 innings, but his advanced metrics point toward some vulnerability with a 4.97 xERA, 4.96 FIP, and 4.71 xFIP. Ray has struck out hitters at a healthy 8.36 K/9, but his 4.29 BB/9 continues to create traffic on the bases. More importantly, the Athletics have been productive against left-handed pitching, carrying a .764 OPS against southpaws this season. Current Athletics hitters have also reportedly produced an aggregate .998 OPS against Ray in prior matchups, suggesting they see him well. Ray's 1.58 HR/9 and low 31.2% ground-ball rate further increase the risk of damage against a lineup that has been significantly better versus lefties than its overall numbers indicate.

The Athletics are the play today,  they match up well against Ray's profile. Oakland's success against left-handed pitching directly attacks one of San Francisco's biggest advantages in this game, and Ray's combination of walks, fly balls, and home-run susceptibility creates upset potential. While Civale is far from dominant, he does possess better control than Ray and could benefit from facing a Giants offense that has not consistently separated itself from opponents. If the Athletics continue their strong production against left-handed pitching and capitalize on Ray's 4.29 BB/9 and 1.58 HR/9, they have a legitimate chance to win outright. As a road underdog, Oakland offers value because the offensive matchup against Ray appears much more favorable than the betting market may account for.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------