Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Texas +105 over Detroit

Kumar Rocker (RHP - TEX, 4.30 ERA)Casey Mize (RHP - DET, 2.63 ERA)

3:30 PM EST. The Rangers are worth looking at tonight because this matchup is much tighter than the pitching matchup alone suggests. Kumar Rocker enters with a 4.30 ERA, but his recent outings have been encouraging as he's begun to harness the electric arsenal that made him one of baseball's top pitching prospects. Rocker has shown better command of his power fastball and breaking ball, allowing him to work deeper into games while generating more swing-and-miss. Texas also has the advantage of playing at home, where its lineup has consistently produced more quality at-bats and is capable of putting pressure on opposing starters early.

Detroit sends Casey Mize (RHP - DET, 2.63 ERA) to the mound, and while his numbers have been outstanding, this feels like a spot where the market may be overvaluing the ERA. Mize is coming off an excellent stretch, including a dominant outing against New York, but baseball is often about timing, and facing Texas in Arlington presents a different challenge. The Rangers have shown they can score in bunches when their offense gets rolling, and they'll be eager to respond after being shut out in the previous game of the series. Mize has enjoyed success against Texas in the past, but every streak eventually gets tested.

This has all the ingredients of a classic value play. The betting market is understandably giving Mize plenty of respect, but that has created value on the home side. Texas has enough power throughout the lineup to change the game with one swing, and Rocker has been pitching with far more confidence than his season ERA suggests. Momentum in baseball changes quickly from game to game, and after getting blanked, expect the Rangers to come out with a far more aggressive approach at the plate. Take Texas to win outright. This is a spot where the superior price outweighs the perceived pitching disadvantage, and the Rangers have every opportunity to close out the series with a statement victory on their home field

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