Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis -1½ +125 over Colorado

Michael McGreevy (RHP – St. Louis) – 3.60 ERA

Michael Lorenzen (RHP – Colorado) – 7.05 ERA

2:15 PM EST. Michael McGreevy brings a significantly stronger current profile into this matchup. His 3.60 ERA is supported by an xERA in the mid-3.00 range, while his K/9 has been around 8.5 and his BB/9 has remained manageable. McGreevy has done a good job limiting free passes and keeping innings from unraveling, giving St. Louis a starter capable of handing the game to its bullpen with a lead.

Michael Lorenzen enters with a 7.05 ERA, and there is little in the underlying profile to suggest an immediate turnaround. His xERA remains well above 5.00, while his K/9 has hovered around 7.0 and his BB/9 has been elevated. Too many plate appearances have ended with hitters reaching base or making authoritative contact, leaving Lorenzen vulnerable to crooked numbers. His current form is a clear step below what McGreevy is bringing to the mound.

This is exactly the type of pitching matchup where laying the run line becomes attractive. St. Louis has the starter with the lower ERA, better xERA, stronger overall command and more dependable current form. Colorado's starter has struggled to keep runners off base and has not generated enough strikeouts to consistently escape trouble. That creates an opportunity for the Cardinals to put pressure on Lorenzen early and build a lead.

McGreevy gives the Cardinals the clear starting-pitching advantage, while Lorenzen's inflated ERA and underlying metrics make him particularly vulnerable to a team capable of taking advantage of mistakes. The Cardinals have the better arm, the better current form and the home-field edge, making a multi-run victory the preferred outcome

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------