Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Colorado -1½ +230 over Arizona

9:40 PM EST. Mitch Bratt (LHP – ARI) has been living a charmed life, and we're going to step in front of it before the market catches up. Through six major-league starts covering 27.2 innings, Bratt owns a perfectly respectable 3.90 ERA. Look beneath the surface, however, and there are warning signs everywhere. Bratt has issued

18 walks while striking out just 21 batterThat's an alarming amount of traffic for a pitcher who doesn't possess overpowering stuff, and it's extremely difficult to survive at this level when you're constantly putting runners on base for free.

Bratt's ERA has been protected by a BABIP sitting roughly 50 points below the major-league norm. That's an enormous advantage for a pitcher allowing plenty of contact, and it's not something we're willing to bet will continue. His fastball averages around 91 MPH, he isn't missing enough bats to consistently escape trouble, and the walks keep piling up. You simply cannot keep issuing free passes, allowing hard contact and depending on batted balls to continually find gloves. Eventually, those runners start scoring. Bratt is walking a tightrope every time he takes the mound, and sooner or later he's going to fall off.

We understand exactly who we're backing here. Colorado is one of baseball's weakest clubs, and we're certainly not suggesting otherwise. However, that's precisely why we're being offered against a starting pitcher whose surface numbers are disguising some serious underlying problems. If Bratt finally has the blow-up outing his peripherals have been warning about, we don't want Colorado at a short price—we want maximum leverage on the possibility that Arizona gets buried.

This has virtually nothing to do with who's pitching for Colorado. It's a pure fade of an Arizona starter whose results simply don't match the way he's pitching. Bratt's combination of walks, limited strikeouts, modest velocity and fortunate results on balls in play is begging for regression.

At +230we'll gladly take our chances that tonight is the night the bill finally comes due.

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