Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Arizona  +130 over Boston

Brandon Pfaadt (RHP- Arizona) — 2.28 ERA 

Payton Tolle (LHP- Boston) — 2.97 ERA

4:10 PM EST. The first thing that jumps off the page in this matchup is the price, because the underlying pitching comparison does not support Boston being priced as heavily as they are. Brandon Pfaadt brings the better  ERA into this start, and there is not a marginal difference when we are evaluating two starters currently pitching at this level. Pfaadt has been efficient with his pitches, limiting damaging contact and working deep enough into games to keep the Arizona bullpen from becoming the deciding factor. Getting that type of run prevention from a team is precisely what attracts us to the Diamondbacks.

Payton Tolle has put together a very respectable current ERA, but we are not prepared to make him a significant favorite over Pfaadt based solely on the venue. The left-hander has to deal with an Arizona lineup that does not need to produce a crooked number early in order for the Diamondbacks to be in position to win. Pfaadt's ability to suppress runs changes the equation considerably. This projects as the type of game where a couple of baserunners, a timely extra-base hit or one mistake pitch can determine the outcome, making the underdog price considerably more valuable.

We believe the market has missed the number. Pfaadt owns the superior ERA, while Tolle's advantage comes primarily from being the home starter rather than possessing a statistical profile that clearly separates him from the Arizona right-hander. We are not interested in paying a premium for Boston when the starting-pitching numbers point toward a much more competitive game. The Diamondbacks have the type of pitching foundation that allows the  price to become attractive, particularly in a matchup where neither starter is being asked to overcome a major statistical disadvantage.

We are taking Arizona today to beat Boston. The overall numbers suggest this game should be considerably closer than the market indicates. We will take the superior current run-prevention profile at the better price and make Arizona the play.

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