Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis +135 over Philadelphia

Quinn Mathews (LHP- St. Louis) — 3.00 ERA

Andrew Painter (RHP- Philadelphia) — 6.60 ERA

6:05 PM EST. Right back on the bus Gus, on St. Louis tonight, and once again we believe the number is simply too high. Quinn Mathews brings a 3.00 ERA into this matchup, while Andrew Painter is sitting at 6.60, and that is a sizeable gap in current run prevention. The Cardinals are not being asked to overcome a major pitching disadvantage here; quite the opposite. We have the better ERA on our side and a price that we believe is out of line with the actual matchup.

Mathews has also shown the type of strikeout ability we want to see from a pitcher. The left-hander is missing bats at a healthy rate while keeping the free passes under control, giving him a strong K-BB foundation. That combination is particularly important because it limits the number of extended innings he has to work through. The 3.00 ERA is not standing alone either; the underlying indicators support the quality of the work, which makes us much more comfortable taking St. Louis at this inflated price.

Painter at a 6.60 ERA leaves very little room for interpretation, and the right-hander has not been able to translate his stuff into consistent run prevention. His strikeout numbers have not been enough to offset the traffic and scoring opportunities, and that is a problem against a Cardinals lineup that should get chances to make him work.

Right back with St. Louis tonight. The number is not justified in our opinion, and the battle on the mound is the icing on the cake. Mathews gives us the superior current ERA and the better overall statistical foundation, while Painter's 6.60 mark makes Philadelphia very difficult to justify at this price. We are taking the Cardinals with the money and looking for the “W”. We trust we will be walking to the window after this one!

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