Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ +180 over Arizona

Andrew Abbott (LHP- Cincinnati) — 4.08 ERA

Mitch Bratt (LHP- Arizona) — 4.25 ERA

4:15 PM EST. This number is simply too good to pass up. We are going to Cincinnati on the reverse run line, laying the run and a half, and the starting pitching matchup is the biggest reason why. Andrew Abbott comes into this game with a 4.08 ERA against Mitch Bratt at 4.25, so we are certainly not looking at a situation where Arizona has a significant advantage on the mound. In fact, the numbers are remarkably close, which makes the price on Cincinnati very difficult for us to ignore.

Abbott also gives Cincinnati the more established strikeout arm, with 108 strikeouts across 139.1 innings. Bratt has 25 strikeouts in 36.2 innings, and although the sample is considerably smaller, he has not shown enough swing-and-miss ability to make us believe Arizona deserves to be priced as heavily as it is. The difference between these two starters is simply not large enough to justify the market separation.

We also like the timing of this wager. Cincinnati is coming off an explosive offensive performance in this series, and while we are not going to chase yesterday's result, it certainly demonstrates the upside this lineup has when it gets rolling. More importantly, we are not asking Cincinnati to win a low-scoring nail-biter. We are laying the 1½ runs because we believe the Reds have the better opportunity to create separation against Bratt and the Arizona pitching staff.

Cincinnati -1.5 is the play. This is an aggressive run-line wager, but the price makes it worthwhile. Abbott and Bratt are much closer than the betting market suggests, Cincinnati has enough offensive upside to create a multi-run margin, and we are not willing to pass up this number. We are laying the run and a half with Cincinnati and looking for the Reds to win this one by two or more.

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