Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +120 over Boston 

Sandy Alcantara (RHP- Miami) — 3.48 ERA

Ranger Suarez (LHP- Boston) — 3.42 ERA

6:40 PM EST. This mound matchup is more than simply picking the better name. The season ERA's are virtually identical, which tells us right away that Boston has no meaningful advantage on the mound. The underlying profiles are quite different. Suarez brings the stronger strikeout rate at 9.0 K/9, while Alcantara has been more of a command-and-contact pitcher at 6.7 K/9. The important part for us is that Alcantara has been working deeper into games, averaging more than six innings per start compared with roughly five for Suarez.

That difference in workload matters. Miami is getting a starter who has consistently been asked to carry the game well beyond the early innings, and that puts considerably less pressure on the middle relief corps. Alcantara's 1.18 WHIP is also almost identical to Suarez's 1.18, so there is nothing in the baserunner numbers suggesting Boston should be priced as though it has a clear pitching edge. This is much closer to a pick'em pitching matchup than the market would have us believe.

Suarez certainly has the better strikeout weapon, and we are not going to ignore that. But his current ERA advantage is essentially nonexistent, while his innings per start are considerably lower. That gives Miami a different path to winning this game. Alcantara can attack the Boston lineup without relying on the strikeout, limit traffic and continue pitching into the later innings. The fact that this game is being played at loanDepot Park only adds to our comfort with the Miami side.

Miami is the play. We don't need to manufacture an advantage where one doesn't exist. The starting ERA's are almost identical, the WHIP numbers are virtually the same, and Alcantara gives Miami the more reliable workload. Boston is getting respect from the market, but we believe the Marlins are being undervalued at home. This is a much tighter pitching matchup than the price suggests, and we are taking Miami to get the job done.

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