Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

^{San Francisco -1½ +210 over Pittsburgh}

6:40 PM EST. Landen Roupp (RHP- SF, 4.27 ERA) gets the start for San Francisco against Jared Jones (RHP- PIT, 4.88 ERA) of Pittsburgh. Roupp enters with the lower ERA, and his current strikeout rate gives the Giants a legitimate weapon on the mound. He has been able to generate swings and misses while keeping the damage under control, and that is important when taking a large reverse run-line number on the road. The ERA is not dominant, but it is still better than what Jones brings into this matchup.

Jones has the higher ERA and has not produced the type of current underlying numbers that would make us comfortable laying a substantial price with Pittsburgh. His strikeout ability remains useful, but the run prevention has not matched the quality normally associated with a pitcher who can command a big market price. The elevated ERA leaves Pittsburgh needing considerably more from its lineup, while San Francisco has the more attractive starting-pitching number on the board.

This is another situation where the reverse run line gives us the opportunity to take a stand on the underdog without paying anything close to a conventional price. San Francisco is not being asked to prove that it is the superior team; we are simply taking the position that this pitching matchup is much closer than the market price suggests. Roupp's better ERA and ability to miss bats provide enough of a foundation to make the large number on the Giants worth taking.

The road setting does add another degree of difficulty, but that is precisely why the price has been inflated to a level we are willing to attack. Pittsburgh has Jones on the mound, yet the current run-prevention numbers do not provide enough separation from Roupp to justify laying a heavy number with the Pirates. We are taking San Francisco on the reverse run line. Roupp has the better current ERA, Jones has not established enough consistency to scare us away, and the beefed-up number on the Giants is simply too good to pass up.

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