Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Atlanta -1½  +170 over Philadelphia 

6:40 PM EST. Chris Sale (LHP- ATL, 2.06 ERA) gets the ball for Atlanta against Cristopher Sánchez (LHP- PHI, 2.52 ERA) of Philadelphia. This is exactly what we want to see when taking the Braves on the road: two quality left-handers, very little separating them on the surface, and a number that has become far too attractive to ignore. Sale has been outstanding since the All-Star break, posting a 2.19 ERA with 49 strikeouts and only three walks over 37 innings. He also just threw a complete-game shutout against Los Angeles, striking out 11.

Sánchez has put together an excellent season as well, carrying a 2.52 ERA while striking out 202 batters against only 39 walks. His current Statcast profile shows a .236 expected batting average and .354 expected slugging percentage, with a .281 expected wOBA. Those are very good numbers, but they also show that Atlanta is not walking into a matchup where Philadelphia has some overwhelming advantage on the mound.

The biggest attraction for me is Sale. His current form is exactly what we want from a pitcher we are backing at a generous road number. He has recorded 49 strikeouts against just three walks since the All-Star break, and his August work produced a 0.93 WHIP. The matchup data also favors Atlanta's starter, with Sale holding the current Philadelphia roster to a .214 batting average and a .256 wOBA across 141 plate appearances, along with a 30.5% strikeout rate and just a 3.5% walk rate.

This has all the makings of a classic mound battle, which makes the beefed-up reverse-run-line number even more appealing. We are not asking Atlanta to overcome some huge pitching disadvantage; Sale is bringing better recent form into this game, and the price is giving us plenty of compensation for taking the road side. Philadelphia has Sánchez, but Atlanta has Sale pitching at an extremely high level right now. The number is simply too sexy to pass up. We are taking Atlanta on the reverse run line and expecting Sale to give the Braves every opportunity to win this mound battle by 2 measly runs. I can't help myself!

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