Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis -1½ +115 over Colorado

3:10 PM EST. Kyle Leahy (RHP- STL, 3.13 ERA) has been the more dependable run-prevention arm, carrying a 1.31 WHIP with 8.21 K/9 and just 2.64 BB/9. His 3.56 FIP also supports the overall results, while the 21.7% strikeout rate and 7.0% walk rate give him a solid 14.7 percentage-point K-BB% margin. His current Baseball Savant xERA sits at 4.77, so there is some regression built into the underlying numbers, but the command and strikeout profile still make him the better bet to navigate the early innings.

Tanner Gordon (RHP- COL, 5.18 ERA) brings a much different statistical profile. He has produced a 1.40 WHIP with 7.31 K/9 and 1.62 BB/9, along with a 4.56 FIP and 18.8% strikeout rate. Gordon's 4.40 xERA is actually better than his ERA, so the surface number is somewhat inflated, but his 42.3% hard-hit rate and 9.9% barrel rate remain areas St. Louis can attack. The biggest difference comes in the overall quality of contact and the amount of traffic Gordon has allowed, with 108 hits over 88.2 innings.

The pitching matchup gives St. Louis the side we want to attack.Gordon's 5.18 ERA and 1.40 WHIP leave very little margin for error against a lineup that can punish mistakes. The xERA numbers make this less one-sided than the ERA comparison suggests, but the Cardinals still have the superior combination of run prevention, strikeout ability and control from their starter. We are laying the 1.5 runs with St. Louis and trust the Cardinals to get this one done by multiple runs.

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