Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Houston +105 over Atlanta

8:10 PM EST. Peter Lambert (RHP- Houston, 3.71 ERA) and Tyler Mahle (RHP- Atlanta, 3.91 ERA) give us a matchup where the surface ERA's are fairly close, but Lambert brings the better current strikeout profile. Lambert has 141 strikeouts in 145.2 innings, good for 8.71 K/9, with a 1.22 WHIP and a 22.9% strikeout rate. Mahle has 127 strikeouts in 138 innings, or 8.28 K/9, with a 1.25 WHIP and a 22.1% strikeout rate. Lambert's 12.3% swinging-strike rate is another positive indicator, while his current walk rate remains the one area that needs to be monitored.

The current form also points toward Houston. Lambert has come back with two efficient starts, including seven innings against Arizona and more than six innings against Tampa Bay, while allowing no walks in either outing. That recent command is important because it puts him in position to work deeper into the game without giving Atlanta extra opportunities. Mahle has pitched well since joining Atlanta, including a seven-inning, one-run outing in his most recent start, but the broader current numbers show a much more ordinary strikeout and walk profile.

The Astros are getting this game at home, and Lambert gives them a legitimate starting-pitching foundation against an Atlanta lineup that will have to generate offense without relying on free baserunners. This isn't a matchup where Houston needs some dramatic pitching advantage—the numbers simply give the Astros a cleaner profile, and the recent command from Lambert strengthens the case. With the home field and the better current strikeout indicators, we're willing to back Houston to win this one.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------