Posted on Sept 28 Before Game 1

MLB Playoffs - Series Wager

Boston  +140 over New York

When the Yankees show up in October, you're almost always paying something for the pinstripes, the history, Yankee Stadium and the public money that follows them. New York deserves to be favored after finishing 93-68, but +140 suggests a larger separation than we're willing to accept in a best-of-three between two teams whose greatest strengths are remarkably similar. Boston finished 87-75, but its 90-72 Pythagorean record suggests it was better than the standings indicate, and the Red Sox finished with a healthy +78 run differential. 

Forget the records for a moment and look at what is most likely to determine a short postseason series: pitching. These were arguably the two best pitching staffs in the American League. New York finished third in DRA-, Boston second. The Yankees ranked second in starting pitching; Boston ranked third. But here's where it gets interesting: the Red Sox finished first in baseball in bullpen DRA-, while New York ranked seventh. There isn't anything resembling a +140 gap between these pitching staffs.

New York unquestionably has the sexier top of the rotation. Cam Schlittler has been phenomenal and is positioned to win the Cy Young, with Max Fried behind him. That's a nasty one-two punch. But Boston isn't showing up with batting-practice pitchers. Payton Tolle has a 74 DRA- with a 28.4% strikeout rate, Sonny Gray checks in at 87, and Ranger Suárez at 90. Tolle has rapidly developed into Boston's own power-pitching left-handed monster, attacking hitters with a four-seamer, sinker and cutter while generating poor swing decisions. If we get Schlittler against Tolle in Game 1, Boston isn't conceding that game because New York has the bigger name on the mound. 

The handedness is particularly important. The Yankees were substantially worse against left-handed pitching, ranking 26th in DRC+ against lefties compared with eighth against right-handers. Boston can attack that weakness over and over again. Tolle and Suárez are left-handed starters, and the bullpen gives Boston Erik Miller, Aroldis Chapman and other options from that side. The Red Sox can make New York deal with left-handed pitching essentially from the first inning through the ninth. 

And then there's Aaron Judge. His health changes the entire complexion of this series. Judge missed significant time with a rib injury and then injured his calf shortly after returning. Even if he plays, there's a legitimate question about how close he is to full strength, and a limited Judge likely means DH duty. That creates a domino effect elsewhere in the lineup and makes an already shallow New York offense considerably less intimidating. We're not suggesting Judge can't change a game with one swing—of course he can—but paying a premium for the Yankees becomes considerably less attractive when their most important offensive player enters the series with a physical question mark.

Boston has its own offensive concerns, particularly Willson Contreras' hand, so we're not going to pretend this is some overwhelming Red Sox lineup advantage. It isn't. The Red Sox finished only 25th in DRC+, and Contreras has been the most important hitter in the lineup. But Roman Anthony has been productive since returning, Wilyer Abreu remains a quality hitter, Ceddanne Rafaela has produced all season and Caleb Durbin has improved considerably after his miserable start. The key point isn't that Boston has the better offense. It's that neither offense is good enough to justify making pitching anything other than the central issue in this series. 

That's where Boston's bullpen becomes a major weapon. Aroldis Chapman has been excellent, Garrett Whitlock has been outstanding against right-handed hitters, Erik Miller gives Alex Cora another strong left-handed option, and Brayan Bello provides something particularly valuable in October: a quality right-handed arm capable of supplying multiple innings. Every Boston pitcher who threw at least 30 innings this season graded better than average by DRA-. That's not one dominant closer covering up a mediocre bullpen. It's legitimate depth. 

That depth matters enormously in a best-of-three because the normal rules disappear. Managers don't have to save relievers for next week. If Tolle gives Boston four or five strong innings, Cora can start matching up immediately. If a starter gets into trouble early, Bello gives him a multi-inning escape hatch. If Judge, Ben Rice or another dangerous Yankee comes up in a leverage spot, Boston has multiple ways to attack the matchup. The original analysis itself arrives at essentially the same conclusion on the pitching matchup: Boston has the deeper and more diverse bullpen and its extreme left-handedness matches up particularly well against New York. 

There's also something in Boston's season that we don't want to dismiss. This club was 14 games under .500 in mid-June and then ripped off an extraordinary 35-8 stretch to completely change its season. They've cooled considerably since then, but a team doesn't play .814 baseball for 43 games by accident. Boston's 87 wins undersell how good this club was once it dug itself out of that disastrous beginning. 

New York has the better record, home field and the better one-two combination in Schlittler and Fried. That's why the Yankees are favored. But we're not being asked whether New York is good. We're being asked whether Boston's chances are being discounted too heavily at +140, and that's where the opportunity lies.

This series has all the ingredients of three low-scoring, high-leverage games in which one swing or one bullpen decision could decide everything. In that environment, taking +140 with the team that finished second in overall pitching, first in bullpen pitching and is uniquely constructed to attack one of New York's biggest offensive weaknesses is much more attractive than laying a premium with the Yankees simply because they're the Yankees.

The Yankees have the bigger brand. Boston has the price.

 Sportsinteraction