Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland +140 over Tampa Bay — Game 1 ALCS

5:00 PM EST. Drew Rasmussen has been outstanding, and that's precisely why Cleveland is being offered at such an attractive price. The Rays have the better starting pitcher, home-field advantage, and a reputation for doing all the little things right. They also just swept the Yankees, with Rasmussen coming off eight brilliant innings in which he allowed one hit and struck out ten. Everything about this matchup points toward Tampa Bay, which is exactly why the Guardians are worth a closer look at +140.

Rasmussen's numbers are exceptional, but Cleveland isn't sending some helpless sacrificial lamb to the mound. Foster Griffin's 5.61 ERA since arriving from Washington has made him an easy pitcher to dismiss, but his underlying September numbers tell a different story. He didn't allow a home run in four appearances, maintained excellent strikeout-to-walk numbers, and posted a 2.34 FIP. Against the White Sox in the Division Series, Griffin struck out seven of the eleven batters he faced. He's also armed with an unusually deep assortment of pitches, making him difficult to prepare for, particularly when Cleveland can change pitchers and looks throughout the afternoon.

The Guardians aren't approaching this as a conventional pitching matchup, either. Their bullpen led the majors with a 26.5% strikeout rate, and they have the personnel to attack Tampa Bay with a succession of different arms. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski provide excellent late-inning options, while Joey Cantillo can handle multiple innings. That's significant against a Rays lineup that thrives on contact rather than overwhelming opposing pitchers with power from top to bottom.

Tampa Bay deserves credit for its outstanding defense and its ability to manufacture runs, but its offense wasn't particularly impressive against New York. The Rays hit just .208 with a .255 on-base percentage in the Division Series. Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz are legitimate threats, but there are several softer spots in that lineup. Cleveland's pitching depth gives the Guardians an opportunity to exploit those weaknesses without asking Griffin to carry the entire workload.

Meanwhile, José Ramírez remains one of baseball's most dangerous postseason hitters, and Cleveland has enough offensive pieces to make Rasmussen work. Steven Kwan and Chase DeLauter bring quality at-bats, and the Guardians have already demonstrated that they can manufacture offense against difficult pitching.

The market is understandably impressed with Rasmussen, but there's a difference between recognizing the superior starter and pricing an entire baseball game around him. Tampa Bay is being treated like a considerably stronger club when Cleveland's bullpen, pitching flexibility and offensive talent make this a much more competitive matchup than the odds suggest. At +140, the Guardians offer the better value in the ALCS opener.

Sportsinteraction