Posted at 11AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Philadelphia +120 over Houston

7:00PM EST Philadelphia presents value in this spot because the market is leaning heavily on Houston’s defensive reputation without fully accounting for matchup dynamics and recent offensive reliability. The Rockets have been excellent on that end overall, but their style invites physical games with high foul volume, which plays directly into the 76ers’ strengths. Philadelphia may struggle with shooting efficiency at times, yet they consistently generate free throws and second-chance opportunities, two areas that neutralize defensive pressure. When a team that lives at the line is priced as the lesser side, it creates a margin of value that isn’t always obvious in raw efficiency numbers.

From a game-flow standpoint, Philadelphia is positioned to control tempo more than Houston typically allows. The Rockets thrive when forcing turnovers and turning defense into transition offense, but the 76ers are far more deliberate and physical, making it harder for Houston to dictate pace. Philadelphia’s rebounding edge — particularly on the offensive glass — gives them extra possessions in games where shooting percentages fluctuate. Against Phoenix, the 76ers generated plenty of looks despite the loss, and that type of volume tends to pay off when facing a team that prefers lower-possession, grind-it-out games.

The value case for Philadelphia is rooted in sustainability rather than flash. Houston’s recent win masked some inefficiencies, especially from the free-throw line, while Philadelphia’s underlying metrics suggest they’re closer to a positive correction. The 76ers don’t need to dominate this matchup; they simply need to play to their identity — drawing fouls, attacking the paint, and limiting Houston’s ability to get out in transition. When a team with a stable half-court approach and consistent free-throw shooting is priced as the underappreciated side, backing them outright becomes a calculated value play rather than a leap of faith.

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