Posted at 11:30AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Orlando +130 over Miami

7:30PM EST This matchup is priced almost entirely on location rather than separation, and that’s where Orlando becomes interesting from a value standpoint. Miami is laying a short number at home, but both teams are walking in shorthanded and relying on condensed rotations. When the talent gap shrinks, the underdog deserves more attention, especially one that’s already proven it can compete in this series. Orlando won the most recent meeting and has enough size and versatility to avoid being overwhelmed defensively, even without a fully healthy lineup.

The Heat’s home record looks strong on paper, but many of those wins came with a much cleaner rotation. Without key shot creators, Miami’s offense has become far more deliberate and easier to scheme against. Everything funnels through Bam Adebayo and a single primary scorer, which limits flexibility late in games. That plays into Orlando’s hands, as they’re comfortable slowing things down and forcing opponents to beat them with role players rather than stars.

From a betting perspective, grabbing Orlando on the moneyline offers more upside than laying points with a depleted favorite. The Magic don’t need to dominate; they need to keep the game close and execute in the final few possessions. In a matchup that projects as a grind with long halfcourt stretches, the plus price on Orlando reflects more risk than reality. This is a coin-flip type game being priced like Miami has a clear edge—and that’s the value gap worth exploiting.

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