Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Memphis +7½ -105 over Minnesota

8:00PM EST Memphis enters this matchup in poor form on the surface, but that recent slide has created an opportunity where the market may be overcorrecting. The Grizzlies have been shorthanded for much of the season, yet despite the losses, their offensive output has remained competitive, even against stronger opposition. They’ve continued to generate perimeter looks, move the ball effectively, and stay within striking distance in most games before defensive lapses swing results late. Getting more than eight points here reflects reputation and standings rather than the actual on-court gap between these teams right now, which is far narrower than the number suggests.

From a matchup standpoint, Memphis is better equipped than expected to hang around. The Grizzlies can score in multiple ways and have shown they can attack Minnesota’s defensive schemes with spacing and ball movement, as evidenced by their earlier head-to-head win this season. Jaren Jackson Jr. remains a matchup problem with his ability to score inside and out, while assuming a heavier usage role with key players sidelined. Minnesota’s recent success has leaned heavily on defense, but offensively they’ve been inconsistent, often going through long stretches of stagnation. That inconsistency opens the door for underdogs to stay within the number, especially teams willing to push tempo and trade baskets.

The value on Memphis lies in game script and market perception. Minnesota is being priced like a team in full control, yet their recent wins have come with fluctuating offensive efficiency and reliance on hot shooting nights. Memphis, meanwhile, has been far more competitive than its record implies and has consistently shown the ability to respond after poor quarters rather than collapse entirely. With a spread this large, the Grizzlies don’t need to win — they simply need to remain competitive, which aligns with how they’ve played most opponents even during this losing stretch. Memphis with the points tonight offers value as a resilient underdog, making the Grizzlies the preferred side against the number tonight..

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------