Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Florida +175 ML over Connecticut (Neutral Site Game)

Madison Square Garden – New York, NY

9:00 PM ET. In our previous attack on the Huskies, we mentioned this very contest as this matchup naturally carries a strong emotional pull for the Huskies. A season ago, UConn’s attempt at a historic three-peat came to a halt when Florida eliminated them in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. There’s no shortage of narrative fuel: national stage, Madison Square Garden, bright lights, a re-match with the titleholders who were the very program that sent them packing. The setup screams revenge.

The market is behaving exactly as you’d expect — heavily tilted toward the Huskies as if payback is the only variable worth considering. But betting sentiment can be one of the most expensive angles to trust. The “revenge” storyline is notorious for creating bad numbers and misplaced faith. This is one of those scenarios.

Let’s introduce a context that hasn’t been part of the discussion. Before last March, Florida hadn’t beaten UConn in three decades. The Huskies had also covered four straight times in the series and were one of the most reliable point-spread performers in college hoops over their multiple tournament runs. Because UConn dominated this matchup historically, the market is still over-adjusting in the other direction. But all backers are vested in the notion that vengeance guarantees execution. It does not.

Where the value sits, is with the underdog. Yes, Florida already has three losses this season, and yes, UConn has the better record on paper along with the better ranking. But the Gators just went toe-to-toe with Duke and could have knocked them off. It’s not an indictment but instead a feather in the Gators’ cap. Florida has shown they can elevate when facing elite competition, and that’s what matters here — not the sentiment.

The Gators are more than capable of walking into New York and spoiling UConn’s payback script and more of than not, payback is never actually had. If Florida had beaten Duke and/or had the overall historicity not favored Connecticut, the Gators would be priced at a parity here. Florida or nothing.

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