Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Siena +120 ML over VERMONT

Roy L. Patrick Memorial Gymnasium – Burlington, VT

7:00 PM ET. Let’s start with the obvious, because it’s impossible to ignore: Siena has never beaten Vermont. Not once. In the entire history of these programs, the Saints have walked away empty every single time, and most of those losses haven’t been particularly close. That fact alone is doing a lot of heavy lifting in how this game is being priced and perceived. But that’s exactly the point.

If you strip away the logos, the jerseys, and the historical baggage, this number tells a very different story. The oddsmakers are effectively saying that if this game were played on a neutral floor—or flipped to Siena’s home court—the Saints would likely be favored. That’s a bold stance considering Vermont’s reputation as the unquestioned class of the America East and a program the market pencils into March almost by default.

This isn’t your old Siena team. Under Gerry McNamara, the Saints have quietly become legitimate. They enter this game 9–2, with four true road wins already banked. That matters. This group travels well, competes consistently, and doesn’t wilt when the environment turns hostile. And frankly, they’re closer to being unbeaten than their record suggests—narrow losses at Colgate and Saint Bonaventure earlier in the year could have easily gone the other way with a bounce or two.

Vermont, meanwhile, is getting priced almost entirely on brand equity. They deserve respect, but respect doesn’t automatically translate to value. The Catamounts are expected to win this matchup because they always do, not because the current gap between these teams demands it. That assumption is exactly why Siena is sitting at plus money.

This game is less about history and more about trajectory. Siena is ascending, building momentum, and proving it can handle tough road spots. Vermont is steady, familiar, and comfortable—qualities that often come with inflated pricing. The market is betting on what has happened before. We’re betting on what’s happening now. Wrong side favored.

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