Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Albany +10 -110 over STONY BROOK

Island Federal Credit Union Arena – Stony Brook, NY

7:00 PM ET. On the surface, everything points one way. Stony Brook is undefeated at home, sitting 8–3 overall and an eye-catching 8–1 against the spread. They’ve been one of the most profitable teams to back in all the country, cashing five straight tickets and pulling off eyebrow-raising upsets, we preface as a significant underdog at Loyola Marymount and on the island against Columbia. The Seawolves look sharp, disciplined, and dangerous, and the market has responded accordingly.

Albany, meanwhile, looks like the perfect team to fade. The Great Danes are just 3–9 overall, winless away from home, and only 3–6 ATS. All their wins have come against Division II opposition, which does nothing to inspire confidence. On paper, this feels like a mismatch — and that’s precisely the trap.

Dig deeper and the rivalry tells a very different story. Over the last four meetings between these two programs, the series is split evenly. These games are competitive, physical, and often decided in the second half regardless of form. That matters, especially when one side is taking back a heavy tag in this bitter rivalry. What we’re dealing with here is perception versus reality. Stony Brook’s “shiny” profile has inflated the number next to their name, while Albany’s struggles have buried them completely in the market’s mind. That combination creates value. The Great Danes don’t need to dominate — they don’t even need to win — they just need to show up with the urgency that rivalry games reliably produce. Stony Brook may very well win the game, but laying close to double digits in a rivalry with a history of close contests is asking too much. And that is a strictly the bi-product of SBU covering five straight and making headway while the Danes haven’t done much of that all season. That can of course flip when these two meet. Take the points.   

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