Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Montana State @ Northern Colorado 

8:00 PM EST. This one checks the two boxes you actually want when you’re hunting these “schedule-gap dogs”: the underdog isn’t just battle-tested, it’s also the better team on KenPom (Montana State 157 vs Northern Colorado 170). That matters because you’re not trying to “manufacture” an upset with a weak roster. Instead, we’re backing a team that grades out stronger overall and has already seen a tougher non-conference slate. In other words, the resume isn’t fake and the rating isn’t fake.

With Northern Colorado at home, you’ll likely see the market shade them a bit on venue and the typical “home Big Sky” comfort, but the profile says Montana State is the more trustworthy side if the number is reasonable. When the dog has the better overall rank and the stronger non-conf signal, it’s one of the cleanest ways to take points (or look moneyline if the spread is short), because we’re not relying on one hot shooting night. We’re leaning into a structural edge.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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