Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

George Washington -12 over Fordham

2:00 PM EST. This number is about context and value, not recent box scores. George Washington is laying a double-digit price at home because the market is finally catching up to a long-standing gap between these two teams — one that Fordham’s record badly disguises. The Rams have benefited from the softest schedule in the country, literally ranking 365th in strength of schedule, and that matters enormously once they step into real Atlantic 10 road environments. Meanwhile, George Washington has built its profile against far stronger competition, and the recent losses have actually helped create value by cooling public sentiment without materially changing the underlying matchup advantage.

From a matchup standpoint, this is a brutal spot for Fordham. Their offense struggles to generate efficient looks against disciplined half-court defenses, and that weakness is magnified away from home. George Washington’s size, rebounding edge, and ability to pressure ball-handlers force opponents into longer possessions and lower-quality shots — exactly the type of environment where Fordham has consistently fallen behind early and struggled to recover. The Rams’ narrow win over La Salle does little to inspire confidence here, especially considering La Salle’s own issues and Fordham’s continued inefficiency from the field.

The value lies in recognizing that George Washington doesn’t need to play a perfect game to cover this number — it simply needs to be itself at home. The Revolutionaries have been far more reliable in daytime home games against non-ranked opponents, and this is a spot where urgency, venue, and talent all align. Fordham’s record suggests competitiveness, but the schedule reality tells a very different story. When a team built on weak opposition steps into a hostile conference road setting against a superior roster, the spread often isn’t high enough. That’s the case here.

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