Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

VCU -7 -110 over Dayton

7:00 PM EST Dayton’s record still looks solid at a glance, but the recent form tells a very different story, and that’s where the betting value starts to show up. The Flyers finally stopped the bleeding with a narrow home win over St. Bonaventure, yet that result does little to erase how shaky they’ve been over the last few weeks. Defensive consistency has been a real issue, especially away from home, where their margin for error shrinks dramatically. Their road performances have lacked physicality and composure, and offensively they’ve leaned heavily on a small group of scorers without much support behind them. When a team with those traits walks into one of the toughest home environments in the Atlantic 10, the market often still prices them on season-long reputation rather than current reality.

VCU, meanwhile, is quietly becoming one of the most reliable teams in the conference, particularly on its own floor. The Rams have built their success around pace control, depth, and shot quality, and that combination has translated into consistent home dominance. They’re scoring at a much higher clip than Dayton, doing so with better ball movement and stronger perimeter efficiency, which is crucial against a Flyers defense that has struggled to close out shooters. Even when VCU isn’t at its offensive peak, their ability to force uncomfortable possessions and dictate tempo has allowed them to pull away late. That’s an important angle when laying points, because VCU doesn’t need a perfect shooting night to create separation.

From a value standpoint, this number isn’t just about who wins — it’s about which team is better positioned to control the game for 40 minutes. Dayton’s recent ATS struggles, thin margin on the road, and defensive lapses line up poorly against a VCU team riding momentum and protecting home court at a high level. The Rams have been extending leads rather than letting teams hang around, while Dayton has shown the opposite tendency away from home. When you combine current form, matchup dynamics, and venue, VCU offers value that goes beyond surface-level records and leans into where both programs actually are right now.

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