Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tulane +145 over Wichita St.

2 PM EST. Wichita State has been the steadier team overall, but they’ve made a habit of playing games that come down to the final minutes. Seven of the Shockers’ nine losses have been decided by six points or fewer, and even many of their wins have required late execution. That profile matters when laying points on the road, especially in a building where Tulane has been far more comfortable. The Green Wave are not a team that folds early, and they’ve repeatedly shown an ability to erase double-digit deficits, both this season and in past meetings with Wichita State. With Rowan Brumbaugh playing the best basketball of his career and coming off a statement performance against Memphis, Tulane has the scoring punch to keep pace.

Stylistically, this is also a better matchup for Tulane than public perception implies. Wichita State’s biggest edge comes on the glass, particularly on the offensive boards, but that advantage often leads to longer, more physical games rather than blowouts. Tulane is comfortable playing in those grind-it-out environments and has enough perimeter shooting to punish second-chance collapses. The Green Wave average more made three-pointers than Wichita State typically allows, and at home their shooters tend to be more reliable. Meanwhile, Wichita State’s offense is heavily dependent on Kenyon Giles shouldering a massive workload, logging nearly 40 minutes per game in conference play. That kind of usage can wear down even elite scorers, especially on the road in a hostile setting where defensive attention is focused on taking away the first option.

From a value standpoint, Tulane + the points stands out because the market is pricing this as if Wichita State is significantly better than they’ve shown in tight AAC games. History between these teams strongly favors competitive outcomes, with multiple recent meetings decided late or swinging on extended runs rather than sustained dominance. Tulane doesn’t need to win outright for this bet to cash — they simply need to do what they’ve consistently done at home: stay connected, make timely shots, and apply pressure late. Given Wichita State’s tendency to let opponents linger and Tulane’s proven ability to rally and close gaps, this number feels inflated. In a matchup that profiles as physical, emotional, and likely decided in the final possessions, grabbing the points with the home underdog offers clear and meaningful value.

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