Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Georgia Southern +115 over Marshall

When a team loses nine straight against the spread, the natural reaction is to keep fading them. That’s human nature. Georgia Southern has burned bettors for weeks, and now the public sees an opportunity to line up on Marshall and cash what feels like an easy ticket. But here’s the problem — if you’re betting Marshall strictly because Georgia Southern can’t cover, you’re very late to that party. The value in fading the Eagles existed five, six, seven games ago. Oddsmakers know exactly what that ATS streak looks like, and they adjust accordingly. Markets don’t ignore nine straight non-covers. They inflate the other side. If you bet Marshall today and win, fine — but understand you’re laying a price that already accounts for that ugly trend.

Nine straight ATS losses is an anomaly. Spreads are designed to be the great equalizer, and it is extremely difficult for any team to consistently miss the number that many times without correction. At some point, the tax shows up on the opponent. Marshall comes in with the better recent results and the cleaner statistical profile, but that’s precisely why they’re attracting attention. The line is inviting you to keep fading Georgia Southern, almost daring you to believe the streak continues. That’s usually when the value flips. When a team becomes a public punching bag, the edge shifts to the contrarian side.

This isn’t about claiming Georgia Southern is the better team on paper. It’s about recognizing market timing. If you’ve been fading them during this nine-game skid, you’ve already cashed. If you’re jumping in now, you’re chasing steam that’s already priced in. Conference games between comparable offensive teams rarely justify heavy confidence in a short road favorite, especially when that favorite is benefiting from recency bias. Georgia Southern at plus money isn’t comfortable — but value rarely is. You’re not early fading them. You’re late. And being late is expensive.

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