Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Butler +105 over Seton Hall

6 PM EST Backing Butler here is about buying low at the right time. The Bulldogs are in the middle of a five-game skid, but they’ve been competitive in several of those losses and now return home to Hinkle Fieldhouse, where role players historically perform better and energy tends to spike. Seton Hall’s defensive reputation is strong, yet its offensive limitations create volatility — especially on the road. The Pirates rank outside the upper tier nationally in offensive efficiency, meaning extended scoring droughts are always in play. When you’re facing a defense-first team that struggles to consistently score, taking the home side carries value because the margin for error is slimmer than perception suggests.

Injuries to Butler’s backcourt have clearly impacted depth, but they also force a more deliberate style that can shorten games. A slower tempo benefits an underdog or slight home side because it reduces possessions and increases variance late. Butler has already beaten Seton Hall once this season, so there’s proof of concept in the matchup. If the Bulldogs can limit live-ball turnovers and keep the Pirates out of transition, the half-court battle becomes much more manageable. Seton Hall thrives on pressure and offensive rebounding, but Butler at home should be more composed handling that physicality.

From a betting perspective, this sets up as a situational value play. Seton Hall is coming off an emotional comeback win and may draw market support because of its defensive metrics and revenge narrative. However, the Pirates have dropped multiple road games recently and haven’t shown consistent scoring punch away from home. Butler’s losing streak inflates the line and suppresses confidence, which is precisely when value tends to emerge. In a competitive Big East matchup where possessions matter, siding with Butler at home offers the sharper angle.

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