Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

UL Lafayette +6 over Old Dominion

5:00 PM EST. Let’s start with the obvious: we are talking about two flawed basketball teams. UL Lafayette struggles to score. Old Dominion struggles to protect the ball. Neither side plays clean, efficient basketball for long stretches. These are turnover-prone, drought-heavy, inconsistent teams that routinely make life harder on themselves. So when someone confidently lays six points with Old Dominion in a matchup like this, that’s where we step back and ask — why are we paying a premium to trust a sloppy favorite?

Old Dominion’s profile does not scream “margin.” They turn the ball over at a high rate, they allow nearly 79 points per game, and they sit well outside the upper tier nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That’s not the blueprint of a team you want to trust laying multiple possessions. When bad teams play each other, games tighten naturally. They get ugly. They swing wildly. They often devolve into half-court grinds and missed free throws in the final minutes. Asking a team like Old Dominion to separate by two full possessions in that environment is risky business.

This matchup feels much closer to a 50-50 coin flip than the number suggests. In coin-flip games, we don’t lay points — we grab them. Six points in a game between two inconsistent squads is inflated value, plain and simple. Louisiana doesn’t need to be good; they just need to be competitive. When the market forces you to trust a flawed favorite to win by margin, the sharp move is often the opposite. Fade the noise. Take the cushion. In a sloppy-versus-sloppy battle, we’ll happily grab Lafayette (Louisiana) +6 and let the favorite try to prove they can play clean for forty minutes.

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