Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Jacksonville +7 -110 over Florida Gulf Coast

7:00 PM EST Taking the Jacksonville Dolphins plus the points is a value-based play rooted in market inflation and matchup dynamics. Florida Gulf Coast’s higher scoring average naturally draws public attention, especially at home, but this number feels padded because of perception rather than separation. Jacksonville’s recent losses have come in competitive stretches, and despite the skid, their underlying efficiency isn’t dramatically worse than FGCU’s. When you’re catching more than two possessions in a conference game between familiar opponents, the value often lies with the team that can slow tempo and limit runs.

The Florida Gulf Coast Eagles prefer an up-and-down pace, averaging over 80 points per game, but they also surrender 81 per contest. That defensive vulnerability is key. Jacksonville shoots a respectable percentage from the field and, when they’re patient offensively, can generate quality half-court looks. If the Dolphins can keep this game from becoming a track meet and instead force longer possessions, that +7.5 becomes far more valuable. FGCU may ultimately control stretches, but their inability to consistently separate on the defensive end leaves the back door wide open late.

From a betting perspective, this sets up as a classic “take the points” scenario. Florida Gulf Coast has had recent success in the head-to-head series, which only strengthens public confidence and can shade the spread upward. But conference games rarely produce comfortable margins when the underdog is capable of scoring efficiently. Jacksonville doesn’t need to win outright to cash — they simply need to stay within striking distance, and the matchup suggests that’s very realistic. Grabbing the points offers the sharper long-term position in a game that projects closer than the line indicates.

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