Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Southern Indiana +8½ -110 over Morehead 

7:30 PM EST While Morehead State has been solid overall, it hasn’t consistently rewarded bettors in the favorite role, going just 1-1 against the spread when laying 8.5 points or more. Southern Indiana, on the other hand, has quietly been competitive in this underdog range, posting a 6-4 ATS mark when catching 8.5 or more. That tells us oddsmakers may be slightly overpricing the gap between these teams. Even though Morehead State owns a small positive scoring margin on the season, it’s only +1.1 per game — hardly the profile of a team that should be comfortably winning by double digits against comparable competition.

From a matchup standpoint, the tempo and efficiency numbers also suggest this spread may be inflated. The teams combine to average slightly more than the posted total, but opponents of both programs have scored well above this number, indicating defensive vulnerabilities on each side. Morehead State scores 76.2 points per game but allows 75.1, ranking outside the top 200 nationally in defensive scoring. Southern Indiana struggles offensively at 68.9 points per game, yet its defensive efficiency numbers are more respectable, particularly in points allowed per 100 possessions. If the Screaming Eagles can control pace and lean into a half-court game, they can shorten possessions and keep this within reach.

Rebounding and perimeter shooting further strengthen the underdog argument. Morehead State has only a modest rebounding edge on the season and actually gets outpaced from three-point range compared to its opponents. Southern Indiana, while not an elite shooting team, does generate nearly eight made threes per game — a factor that helps an underdog hang around or backdoor cover late. With Morehead State far more productive at home than on the road offensively, this number asks them to create separation against a team that has shown resilience in this role. Taking the points with Southern Indiana provides the stronger value angle, especially in what projects as a competitive, possession-based game rather than a runaway result.

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