Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Northeaestern St +11½ -110 over William & Mary

7:00 PM EST William & Mary Tribe has been excellent at home (9-2) and plays at a pace that produces big scoring nights, but that style can work both ways when you’re laying double digits. With a total sitting at 165.5, this game is expected to feature plenty of possessions. In higher-tempo environments, large spreads become harder to justify because scoring volatility increases and backdoor cover potential rises late.

William & Mary averages nearly 85 points per game over its last 10 and leads the CAA in assists, showing how well the ball moves in its offense. But the Tribe also allow over 81 points per game in that same stretch, which keeps opponents alive even when trailing. Northeastern’s record in conference play is poor, yet the Huskies shoot 45.7% from the field on the season — a mark that suggests they can generate efficient offense if they limit empty trips. They don’t need to win this game outright to cash; they simply need enough consistent scoring to avoid extended droughts. Against a defense that allows opponents to shoot 42.9%, that path exists.

From a value perspective, this number assumes William & Mary repeats the 27-point margin from the first meeting. That’s a big leap in conference play, where familiarity tends to tighten outcomes. Northeastern’s focus should be on stacking solid possessions, protecting the ball, and forcing the Tribe to execute in the half court rather than living in transition. In a projected high-scoring contest, double-digit underdogs benefit from late-game pace, potential fouling sequences, and the natural swings that come with volume shooting. With the spread offering a sizable cushion, backing Northeastern to stay within the number is the sharper side tonight.

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