Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Southern Miss +6 -110 over South Alabama

8:30 PM EST South Alabama’s strong defensive metrics and 20-win record are driving this number, but the underlying profiles of these teams are much closer than perception suggests. Southern Miss scores and allows 74.1 points per game — essentially playing even basketball — and they’ve been more competitive than their 15-15 record implies. They just hung 84 points on Arkansas State despite shooting a miserable 52% from the free-throw line, which is unlikely to repeat given their 73% season average. When an underdog shows it can generate efficient offense (51% from the field last game) but underperforms in a high-variance area like free throws, that’s often where betting value lives.

Meanwhile, the South Alabama Jaguars are elite defensively, ranking near the top of the country in field-goal percentage allowed (38.4%), but that strength is fully baked into the spread. Offensively, they average just 74.4 points per game and rank near the bottom nationally in assists, meaning they can struggle to separate from opponents. They also play at a tempo and scoring range that keeps games in a manageable window — their average total this season sits almost directly in line with tonight’s number. Importantly, South Alabama has not thrived in the favorite role when laying significant points, going just 1-6 against the spread when favored by 5.5 or more. That signals a team capable of winning but not consistently creating margin, which is exactly what you want when grabbing points with a live underdog.

Southern Miss also profiles well situationally. They’re 5-3 against the spread when catching 5.5 points or more this season and score slightly better at home than on the road. Tylik Weeks gives them a legitimate go-to option late, averaging nearly 19 points per game, and the Golden Eagles rebound well enough to avoid getting buried in second-chance opportunities. While their three-point shooting numbers are poor overall, variance tends to swing game-to-game — and even modest improvement from their 29.7% average dramatically raises their ceiling. With South Alabama’s slower offensive pace, limited assist production, and tendency to win without margin, the gap between these teams is thinner than the line implies. In a matchup projecting to land in the low-70s on both sides, taking the points with Southern Miss is the sharper side.

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