Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Baylor +110 over Central Florida

8:00 PM EST Taking the money tonight with Baylor in this matchup is about trusting the offensive ceiling and buying into a correction spot. Baylor sits at .500 overall, but their underlying offensive metrics remain strong — over 82 points per game on nearly 48% shooting. That level of efficiency travels, especially against a defense that ranks near the bottom nationally in points allowed. While Baylor has dropped several recent games, those losses have come with inflated opponent shooting stretches that are unlikely to persist. When a high-powered offense hits the market off a skid, particularly against a defense that allows nearly 78 points per contest, the value often lies with the team capable of creating separation in scoring runs.

UCF’s 20-7 record looks impressive on the surface, but the profile suggests vulnerability. The UCF Knights are allowing 45.8% shooting from the field and rank in the lower tier nationally in defensive points per game. They’ve won with pace and shot-making, but Baylor is more than capable of matching that tempo. Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou give the Bears multiple perimeter threats, and Baylor’s rebounding numbers stack up well enough to prevent second-chance gaps. UCF’s defense struggles to consistently contain dribble penetration and defend without fouling — a concern against a Baylor team that converts over 72% at the line and can pressure mismatches in the half court.

From a betting perspective, this is a classic overreaction opportunity. Baylor’s defensive issues are well-documented, particularly over the last four games, but that stretch has inflated the line and shaded perception. Offensively, the Bears remain one of the more efficient scoring units in the country, and regression toward their season-long defensive averages would be enough in this matchup. UCF’s strong record may draw public support, yet their defensive metrics don’t justify laying significant points against a team with Baylor’s shot-making ability. In a game that projects to be high scoring and possession-driven, the edge goes to the more dynamic offense at a discounted number. Baylor to win and cover offers the stronger value angle tonight.

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