Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Montana -2½ -110 over Idaho

10:00 PM EST Montana State enters this matchup with several advantages that make laying a small number appealing from a value perspective. The Bobcats have been one of the more efficient offensive teams in the Big Sky, averaging around 78 points per game while shooting nearly 47% from the field. Their ability to stretch defenses with perimeter shooting is a major strength, as Montana State ranks among the better three-point shooting teams in the conference both in volume and efficiency. That spacing often forces opponents into difficult defensive rotations, creating scoring opportunities inside and out. In a matchup where the line is relatively short, that offensive consistency provides a strong foundation for backing the favorite.

Another key edge for Montana State is balance across the roster and the ability to generate offense from multiple contributors. In their recent win over Northern Arizona, guard Christian King led the scoring effort while the team received strong rebounding support from Jed Miller. That type of distribution makes the Bobcats difficult to game plan against because they are not reliant on a single scorer to carry the offense. When Montana State is moving the ball effectively and knocking down perimeter shots, they can build scoring runs quickly, which becomes important when trying to cover a modest spread.

Situational factors also tilt the value toward Montana State. The Bobcats enter the game with extra rest after earning a bye, while Idaho is coming off a quick turnaround following its opening-round game. That rest advantage can become noticeable as the game progresses, particularly in tournament settings where fatigue often impacts shooting efficiency and defensive intensity. With Montana State bringing a more balanced offensive attack, stronger perimeter shooting, and fresher legs, the favorite is positioned to control the tempo and gradually create separation. Given those factors, laying the small spread with Montana State offers the stronger betting value in this matchup.

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