Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

GW +7 -110 over Saint Louis

PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA

11:30 AM EST George Washington enters their Atlantic 10 Tournament matchup with Saint Louis as clear underdogs, but the spread offers intriguing value for bettors backing George Washington. The Revolutionaries come into this contest with an 18–14 overall record and have shown resilience throughout the season, navigating several momentum swings while remaining competitive in conference play. Their most recent performance in the tournament against the Fordham Rams demonstrated exactly why they are a dangerous team to fade at a sizable number. George Washington built a massive halftime lead and managed to hold on despite a late push from Fordham, showing they can dictate stretches of play against quality opponents. In tournament settings where pressure and pace can fluctuate quickly, a team that has already secured a win on the same floor often carries confidence into the next round.

One of the biggest reasons George Washington is capable of staying within the number is its offensive production and perimeter shooting. The Revolutionaries average more than 82 points per game and rank among the better three-point shooting teams in the conference, hitting nearly ten shots from beyond the arc per contest. That outside shooting creates the kind of scoring runs that make large spreads difficult to maintain. Players like Christian Jones have stepped up in key moments, as shown by his 20-point effort in the win over Fordham, while interior presence Rafael Castro gives the team an advantage on the glass. George Washington also rebounds well as a group, averaging over 34 boards per game and consistently winning the rebounding battle, which helps them generate second-chance opportunities and limit opposing possessions.

Although Saint Louis boasts one of the stronger defensive profiles in the conference, the matchup still presents a favorable spread scenario for the underdog. The Billikens may score at a high rate, but George Washington’s pace and ability to stretch the floor should keep the game competitive. The teams have already played a close game this season, with Saint Louis winning by just three points, which suggests the gap between these programs is smaller than the current spread implies. In tournament basketball—especially in a conference as balanced as the A-10—large favorites often struggle to create separation for a full 40 minutes. With George Washington bringing solid rebounding, perimeter scoring, and recent tournament momentum, taking the points with the Revolutionaries provides the stronger value play against the spread tonight.

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