Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Duke -6½ -110 over St. John's

Capital One Arena -Washington, DC

7:10 PM EST Duke comes into this matchup looking every bit like a team on a mission. After a brief scare early in the tournament, they’ve settled in and returned to the form that made them one of the most dominant teams in the country all season. Duke plays with balance, efficiency, and control, and when they’re executing, they can beat you in multiple ways. They don’t rely on one style—they can run, they can grind, and most importantly, they rarely beat themselves. That kind of consistency is exactly what you want backing a favorite in a high-stakes spot.

St. John's bring a defensive mindset and toughness that can keep games competitive, but there are clear limitations when they step up in class. They rely heavily on disrupting rhythm and forcing mistakes, but Duke’s composure and ball security make that a much tougher path to success. If St. John’s can’t consistently generate easy offense, they’ll be forced into half-court sets against one of the better defensive teams in the country, which is not a recipe for keeping pace over 40 minutes.

This is the right spot where the favorite is justified by laying  a few points. Duke has the edge in efficiency, depth, and overall execution, and they’ve shown they can pull away once they establish control. St. John’s may hang around early with effort and defense, but over the course of the game, Duke’s structure and shot-making should create separation. This sets up as a methodical win where the better team  will assert itself, and move on! Duke laying the points is the best play for this one.

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