Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Duke -5 -110 over Connecticut

Capital One Arena -Washington, DC

5:05 PM EST. This is one of those matchups where both teams check all the boxes, but only one comes in looking like it’s peaking at exactly the right time. Duke has that feel right now—everything is clicking, the offense is flowing, and more importantly, they’re controlling games instead of just surviving them. Even when things get tight, they don’t panic. They just keep executing, and over the course of 40 minutes, that consistency starts to wear teams down.

That’s not a knock on the Huskies, who’ve been as steady as anyone all season. They defend, they move the ball, and they’re more than comfortable grinding out possessions in the half court. But that style can be a double-edged sword here. If they’re not getting clean looks or second chances, possessions start to feel longer, and against a disciplined team like Duke, that can turn into empty trips in a hurry. The margin for error gets razor thin when you’re playing that kind of game.

The difference here is shot creation and momentum. Duke has been the more dynamic team offensively down the stretch, and they’ve shown they can manufacture points even when things aren’t perfect. UConn will keep this competitive—they always do—but this feels like a game where Duke slowly takes control and doesn’t give it back. Laying a short number in a high-level matchup isn’t always comfortable, but this is a spot where Duke’s current form makes it the sharper side

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