Posted Friday, December 12th at 12:00 PM ET. Odds are subject to change

Washington -9.5 over Boise State

Saturday, December 13th, 2025

SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA

LA Bowl

8:00 PM ET. Sometimes a line tells the entire story before the matchup even kicks off, and this number on Washington does exactly that. In the Mountain West Championship, the efficient market pounded the Broncos from a 3.5-point favorite to as high as -6 by kickoff—an enormous swing in a title game. Despite the potential peril that accompanied given the fact that the number appeared soft with respect to the regular season result between the two sides, Boise State rewarded every one of those tickets, dominating UNLV 34–17 in a wire-to-wire victory that was never in doubt.

With that outcome still fresh in everyone’s mind, this immediately becomes a natural spot where the market will pile on and look to ride the hot hand. Boise State now owns the conference hardware, renewed national attention, and the chance to secure a double-digit win season in Boise-like fashion with a victory here in Los Angeles. On the surface, their profile reads like a dog you want to back. But the line says otherwise.

Washington enters in a far different context. The Huskies’ last appearance was on Thanksgiving weekend, a 26–14 home loss to Oregon in a game that felt within reach until it wasn’t. Washington pulled within five in the fourth quarter, sailing under the 6.5-point line, only for Malik Benson to respond almost instantly and restore a comfortable Ducks margin. From there, the Huskies stalled on their final two possessions and never threatened again. That kind of flat finish—paired with the continued enthusiasm around Boise—should have produced a tight spread. Instead, the oddsmakers hung this number.

Washington laying this many points, even after an uninspiring showing, tells us exactly how the books view this matchup. Boise’s stock is peaking, and Washington’s appears depressed, yet the market still demands more than two scores from the Broncos to cover. That disparity is intentional. Boise State is being priced at its ceiling. Washington is being priced at its floor. It’s Huskies or nothing. We're laying the tag. 

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